Voters wait in line, socially distanced from each other, to cast early ballots on Oct. 19, 2020, in Miami, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
Voters wait in line, socially distanced from each other, to bandage early ballots on Oct. xix, 2020, in Miami, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

The Usa holds a presidential election every four years, but it's non simply the candidates and issues that change from 1 campaign cycle to the side by side. The electorate itself is in a tiresome simply abiding state of flux, too.

The contour of the U.Due south. electorate can change for a variety of reasons. Consider the millions of Americans who take turned 18 and tin can vote for president for the first time this year, the immigrants who have become naturalized citizens and can cast ballots of their own, or the longer-term shifts in the country'due south racial and ethnic makeup. These and other factors ensure that no ii presidential electorates look exactly the same.

So what does the 2020 electorate look like politically, demographically and religiously as the race betwixt Republican President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden enters its last days? To answer that question, here's a roundup of recent Pew Research Center findings. Unless otherwise noted, all findings are based on registered voters.

Political party identification

Share of registered voters who identify with the GOP has ticked up since 2017

Effectually a third of registered voters in the U.S. (34%) identify equally independents, while 33% place as Democrats and 29% identify every bit Republicans, according to a Centre analysis of Americans' partisan identification based on surveys of more than 12,000 registered voters in 2018 and 2019.

Most independents in the U.South. lean toward i of the two major parties. When taking independents' partisan leanings into business relationship, 49% of all registered voters either identify as Democrats or lean to the party, while 44% identify equally Republicans or lean to the GOP.

Party identification among registered voters hasn't changed dramatically over the past 25 years, just at that place have been some modest shifts. One such shift is that the Democratic Party'due south advantage over the Republican Party in party identification has go smaller since 2017. Of form, just because a registered voter identifies with or leans toward a particular political party does not necessarily mean they will vote for a candidate of that political party (or vote at all). In a report of validated voters in 2016, v% of Democrats and Autonomous leaners reported voting for Trump, and 4% of Republicans and GOP leaners reported voting for Hillary Clinton.

Race and ethnicity

Nonwhites make up four-in-ten Democratic voters but fewer than a fifth of Republican voters

Not-Hispanic White Americans make upwardly the largest share of registered voters in the U.S., at 69% of the total as of 2019. Hispanic and Black registered voters each business relationship for 11% of the total, while those from other racial or ethnic backgrounds account for the remainder (8%).

White voters account for a diminished share of registered voters than in the past, declining from 85% in 1996 to 69% alee of this year'due south election. This change has unfolded in both parties, simply White voters take consistently deemed for a much larger share of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters than of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (81% vs. 59% as of 2019).

The racial and ethnic composition of the electorate looks very different nationally than in several key battleground states, according to a Center analysis of 2018 information based on eligible voters – that is, U.Due south. citizens ages eighteen and older, regardless of whether or not they were registered to vote.

White Americans accounted for 67% of eligible voters nationally in 2018, but they represented a much larger share in several key battlegrounds in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, including Wisconsin (86%), Ohio (82%), Pennsylvania (81%) and Michigan (79%). The reverse was truthful in some battlefield states in the West and South. For example, the White share of eligible voters was below the national average in Nevada (58%), Florida (61%) and Arizona (63%). You tin see racial and ethnic breakdown of eligible voters in all 50 states – and how it changed betwixt 2000 and 2018 – with this interactive feature.

Historic period and generation

The aging U.S. electorate: A majority of Republican voters - and half of Democrats - are 50 and older

The U.S. electorate is aging: 52% of registered voters are ages fifty and older, up from 41% in 1996. This shift has occurred in both partisan coalitions. More than half of Republican and GOP-leaning voters (56%) are ages l and older, up from 39% in 1996. And among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, one-half are 50 and older, up from 41% in 1996.

Another mode to consider the crumbling of the electorate is to look at median historic period. The median age among all registered voters increased from 44 in 1996 to 50 in 2019. It rose from 43 to 52 amongst Republican registered voters and from 45 to 49 amidst Democratic registered voters.

Despite the long-term aging of registered voters, 2020 marks the first time that many members of Generation Z – Americans built-in afterwards 1996 – will be able to participate in a presidential election. One-in-x eligible voters this year are members of Generation Z, up from just 4% in 2016, according to Pew Research Eye projections. (Of course, not all eligible voters end up registering and really casting a ballot.)

Education

Share of Democratic voters with no college experience has fallen sharply; much less change among the GOP

Around ii-thirds of registered voters in the U.S. (65%) practice not have a college caste, while 36% practise. But the share of voters with a college caste has risen substantially since 1996, when 24% had one.

Voters who identify with the Democratic Party or lean toward information technology are much more likely than their Republican counterparts to have a higher degree (41% vs. thirty%). In 1996, the contrary was true: 27% of GOP voters had a college degree, compared with 22% of Democratic voters.

Religion

Christians account for the majority of registered voters in the U.Due south. (64%). Just this figure is downward from 79% equally recently equally 2008. The share of voters who identify equally religiously unaffiliated has nearly doubled during that span, from xv% to 28%.

The share of White Christians in the electorate, in item, has decreased in recent years. White evangelical Protestants account for eighteen% of registered voters today, down from 21% in 2008. During the aforementioned flow, the share of voters who are White non-evangelical Protestants vicious from 19% to 13%, while the share of White Catholics fell from 17% to 12%.

Around eight-in-ten Republican registered voters (79%) are Christians, compared with well-nigh half (52%) of Democratic voters. In turn, Autonomous voters are much more likely than GOP voters to identify as religiously unaffiliated (38% vs. 15%).

Self-identified Christians continue to make up a large majority of Republican voters, but are now only about half of Democrats

The key question: What almost voter turnout?

Turnout in U.S. presidential elections

Surveys can provide reliable estimates about registered voters in the U.Due south. and how their partisan, demographic and religious profile has inverse over fourth dimension. But the critical question of voter turnout – who will exist motivated to bandage a ballot and who volition not – is more difficult to answer.

For one thing, not all registered voters end upward voting. In 2016, around 87% of registered voters cast a ballot, according to a Pew Enquiry Center assay of Census Bureau data shortly afterwards that year'south ballot.

Also, voter turnout in the U.Southward. is not a constant: It can and does change from 1 ballot to the next. The share of registered voters who cast a ballot was higher in 2008 than four years ago, for example.

Turnout also varies by demographic factors, including race and ethnicity, age and gender. The turnout rate amongst Blackness Americans, for instance, exceeded the rate among White Americans for the starting time fourth dimension in the 2012 presidential election, just that blueprint did non hold four years after.

So what does all this mean for 2020? There are some early indications that overall turnout could reach a record high this yr, just every bit turnout in the midterms two years ago reached its highest point in a century. Merely 2020 is far from an ordinary year. The combination of a global pandemic and public concerns about the integrity of the ballot have created widespread uncertainty, and that uncertainty makes it even more than difficult than usual to assess who volition vote and who won't.